Sam Darnold TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Sam Darnold

NFL · Player Props

Sam Darnold

QB · Carolina Panthers

TD Passes

Carolina Panthers vs Detroit Lions · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Sam Darnold TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+210/-290).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -275 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +210.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to start backup quarterback Sam Darnold this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
The Carolina Panthers O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Sam Darnold's throwing precision has gotten better this year, with his Completion% increasing from 59.9% to 63.1%.
The Detroit Lions defense has surrendered the 8th-most touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 1.64 per game this year.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 6.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 6th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 49.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the 5th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 52.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Sam Darnold to attempt 28.6 passes in this game, on average: the 9th-least of all QBs.

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