Sam Darnold TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Sam Darnold

NFL · Player Props

Sam Darnold

QB · Carolina Panthers

TD Passes

Carolina Panthers vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Sam Darnold TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-245/+186).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -250 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -245.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to start backup QB Sam Darnold in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
Sam Darnold's throwing precision has been refined this year, with his Completion% jumping from 59.9% to 63.4%.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has surrendered the 4th-most touchdowns through the air in football: 1.77 per game this year.
The Pittsburgh Steelers cornerbacks rank as the 6th-worst collection of CBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 6.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 47.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-most sluggish pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.74 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 53.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Sam Darnold to attempt 28.8 passes in this week's game, on average: the 7th-least of all QBs.

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