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Sam Darnold Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-120/-110).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 7.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 5th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 48.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive ends profile as the 6th-worst group of DEs in the league this year when it comes to run defense.The Carolina Panthers have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.The Carolina Panthers have risked going for it on 4th down 23.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Carolina Panthers will be forced to utilize backup QB Sam Darnold in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.The Carolina Panthers have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 53.4 plays per game.The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
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