Sam Darnold Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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NFL · Player Props

Sam Darnold

QB · Carolina Panthers

Rushing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 6:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Sam Darnold Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 7.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 5th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 48.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive ends profile as the 6th-worst group of DEs in the league this year when it comes to run defense.
The Carolina Panthers have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.
The Carolina Panthers have risked going for it on 4th down 23.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to utilize backup QB Sam Darnold in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 53.4 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.