Sam Darnold Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Sam Darnold

NFL · Player Props

Sam Darnold

QB · Carolina Panthers

Rushing Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Detroit Lions · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 5:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Sam Darnold Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 6.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 6th-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 50.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Sam Darnold to be much more involved in his team's rushing attack this week (9.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (3.1% in games he has played).
The Detroit Lions defense has had the 8th-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, yielding 4.98 yards-per-carry.
The Detroit Lions defensive tackles project as the 7th-worst DT corps in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to start backup quarterback Sam Darnold this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the 5th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 52.9 plays per game.
The Carolina Panthers have faced a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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