Sam Darnold Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

NFL · Player Props

Sam Darnold

QB · Carolina Panthers

Rushing Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Sam Darnold Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+103/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 6.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 2nd-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 52.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year in run blocking.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-worst unit in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.
The Carolina Panthers have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to start backup QB Sam Darnold in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-most sluggish pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.74 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 53.9 plays per game.
The Carolina Panthers have been faced with a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.