Sam Darnold Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

NFL · Player Props

Sam Darnold

QB · Carolina Panthers

Rushing TD

Carolina Panthers vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Sam Darnold Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+413/-905).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -811 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -905.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 7th-most run-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 46.5% red zone run rate.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year in run blocking.
Sam Darnold has rushed for 0.29 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the highest figures in football among QBs (87th percentile).
The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-worst unit in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.
The Carolina Panthers have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-most sluggish pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.74 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 53.9 plays per game.
Opposing squads have run for the 3rd-least TDs in football (0.54 per game) versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year.
The Carolina Panthers have been faced with a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.