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Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 17

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers

Sam Darnold Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 274.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 274.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 274.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Vikings to pass on 62.9% of their opportunities: the 4th-greatest clip among all teams this week.

The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.

This week, Sam Darnold is expected by our trusted projection set to total the 5th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 37.5.

Sam Darnold's 254.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season shows a meaningful improvement in his passing prowess over last season's 33.0 rate.

Sam Darnold's pass-game efficiency has improved this year, averaging 8.25 adjusted yards-per-target compared to just 7.18 mark last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Right now, the 9th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Vikings.

The Green Bay Packers pass defense has displayed good efficiency this year, giving up 7.49 adjusted yards-per-target: the 6th-fewest in the league.

The Packers safeties project as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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