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Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 18

New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers

Sam Darnold Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 199.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 199.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 199.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Carolina Panthers will be rolling with backup quarterback Sam Darnold in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.

The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board.

Sam Darnold's passing precision has gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% increasing from 59.9% to 64.5%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 7th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 53.2 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Sam Darnold to attempt 30.8 passes in this contest, on average: the 11th-least of all quarterbacks.

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