Sam Darnold Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Sam Darnold

NFL · Player Props

Sam Darnold

QB · Carolina Panthers

Completions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 4:56 PM EST

Analysis

Sam Darnold Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-122/-108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -102 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to utilize backup QB Sam Darnold in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Carolina Panthers O-line profiles as the 4th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
Sam Darnold's throwing accuracy has gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 59.9% to 65.0%.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 7.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 5th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 51.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 53.4 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Sam Darnold to attempt 30.7 passes in this game, on average: the 4th-least of all QBs.

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