Salvon Ahmed Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Salvon Ahmed

NFL · Player Props

Salvon Ahmed

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Salvon Ahmed Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Salvon Ahmed to be much more involved in his offense's run game this week (22.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (6.0% in games he has played).
The Miami Dolphins O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense owns the worst efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, conceding 5.51 yards-per-carry.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers rank as the 2nd-worst unit in the league since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 4th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 37.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 8th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 4th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 54.1 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

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