Salvon Ahmed Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Salvon Ahmed

NFL · Player Props

Salvon Ahmed

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

Salvon Ahmed Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-109/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 128.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Salvon Ahmed to be a more integral piece of his offense's run game this week (28.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (6.3% in games he has played).
The Miami Dolphins O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.
The Buffalo Bills safeties project as the 29th-worst safety corps in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins will be forced to use backup quarterback Skylar Thompson in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Dolphins are a giant 13.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 3rd-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 35.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have run the least plays in football this year, averaging a measly 54.1 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

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