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Salvon Ahmed

Salvon Ahmed Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 19

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Salvon Ahmed Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-109/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -109.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 128.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Salvon Ahmed to be a more integral piece of his offense's run game this week (28.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (6.3% in games he has played).

The Miami Dolphins O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.

The Buffalo Bills safeties project as the 29th-worst safety corps in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Miami Dolphins will be forced to use backup quarterback Skylar Thompson in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.

The Dolphins are a giant 13.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 3rd-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 35.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Miami Dolphins have run the least plays in football this year, averaging a measly 54.1 plays per game.

The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

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