Ryan Tannehill TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Ryan Tannehill

NFL · Player Props

Ryan Tannehill

QB · Tennessee Titans

TD Passes

New Orleans Saints vs Tennessee Titans · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Ryan Tannehill TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+160/-215).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +200 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tennessee Titans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.4% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Titans are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 7th-least pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 59.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 54.2 plays per game.
Ryan Tannehill has attempted a measly 27.7 passes per game since the start of last season, ranking in the 22nd percentile among QBs.
The Tennessee Titans O-line ranks as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

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