Ryan Tannehill TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Ryan Tannehill

NFL · Player Props

Ryan Tannehill

QB · Tennessee Titans

TD Passes

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 3, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Ryan Tannehill TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+150/-180).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans are a 4-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 60.2 plays per game.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has given up the 4th-most touchdowns through the air in the league: 1.85 per game since the start of last season.
The Indianapolis Colts safeties project as the 5th-worst collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 4th-least pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 54.4% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Titans to run the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Ryan Tannehill to attempt 31.1 passes in this game, on average: the 5th-least of all quarterbacks.

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