Ryan Tannehill TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

Ryan Tannehill

QB · Tennessee Titans

TD Passes

Los Angeles Chargers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Ryan Tannehill TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+160/-210).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -200 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -210.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has yielded the 5th-most passing TDs in the league: 1.62 per game this year.
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have incorporated play action on 30.3% of their passing plays since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 11th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 52.8 plays per game.
Ryan Tannehill has attempted a measly 28.2 passes per game this year, grading out in the 18th percentile among QBs.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line grades out as the worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.