Ryan Tannehill TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Ryan Tannehill

QB · Tennessee Titans

TD Passes

Green Bay Packers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 18, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Ryan Tannehill TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-300/+220).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -280 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -300.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The Green Bay Packers safeties profile as the 2nd-worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Green Bay Packers defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have used play action on 30.3% of their passing plays since the start of last season (7th-most in the league), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 6th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 52.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 7th-least pass-oriented team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 52.9% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have called the least plays in the league this year, totaling just 52.3 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Ryan Tannehill to attempt 29.7 passes in this contest, on average: the 6th-least of all quarterbacks.