Ryan Tannehill Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Ryan Tannehill

NFL · Player Props

Ryan Tannehill

QB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 4:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Ryan Tannehill Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-121/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Tennessee Titans as the 6th-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 45.0% run rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
With an outstanding total of 3.70 yards-after-contact (88th percentile), Ryan Tannehill ranks as one of the leading rushing quarterbacks in football this year.

Favors Under

The Tennessee Titans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 3.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The predictive model expects the Titans offense to be the 3rd-worst paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.90 seconds per snap.
The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.
Ryan Tannehill's running effectiveness has worsened this year, notching a measly 3.12 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.38 figure last year.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has produced the 7th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, yielding just 3.81 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

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