Ryan Tannehill Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Ryan Tannehill

QB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing TD

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Ryan Tannehill Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+429/-967).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +434 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +429.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 4th-most run-heavy offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 45.6% red zone run rate.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 60.2 plays per game.
Ryan Tannehill has rushed for 0.19 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest figures in the league among QBs (82nd percentile).
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Tennessee Titans have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

The Titans are a 4-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Titans to run the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Ryan Tannehill to be a much smaller part of his offense's run game near the goal line this week (14.1% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (33.3% in games he has played).
Opposing teams have rushed for the 4th-least TDs in football (0.60 per game) versus the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season.
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers project as the best LB corps in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.