Ryan Tannehill Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Ryan Tannehill

NFL · Player Props

Ryan Tannehill

QB · Tennessee Titans

Completions

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 4:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Ryan Tannehill Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-109/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -129 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tennessee Titans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 3.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
This year, the porous Indianapolis Colts defense has yielded a monstrous 74.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 8th-biggest rate in the NFL.
The Colts safeties project as the 4th-worst safety corps in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Tennessee Titans to be the 6th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Titans offense to be the 3rd-worst paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.90 seconds per snap.
In this week's game, Ryan Tannehill is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have the 8th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 32.5.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line grades out as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

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