Ryan Tannehill Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Ryan Tannehill

QB · Tennessee Titans

Completions

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Ryan Tannehill Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (+106/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -123 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ +106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans are a 4-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 60.2 plays per game.
The Indianapolis Colts safeties project as the 5th-worst collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have used play action on 30.3% of their passing plays since the start of last season (7th-most in football), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Titans to run the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Ryan Tannehill to attempt 31.1 passes in this game, on average: the 5th-least of all quarterbacks.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.