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Russell Wilson

Russell Wilson TD Passes
Player Prop Week 8

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Giants

Russell Wilson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+130/-169).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +152 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Steelers have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a staggering 59.7 plays per game.

The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

With a remarkable ratio of 1.75 per game (90th percentile), Russell Wilson ranks as one of the leading touchdown throwers in the league since the start of last season.

This year, the weak Giants defense has yielded a staggering 78.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the biggest rate in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Steelers to pass on 49.0% of their opportunities: the lowest clip among all teams this week.

At the present time, the least pass-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (50.9% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Steelers.

The leading projections forecast this game to have the fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 124.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The projections expect Russell Wilson to attempt 27.9 passes in this contest, on average: the fewest out of all QBs.

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