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Russell Wilson

Russell Wilson TD Passes
Player Prop Week 16

Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Russell Wilson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+145/-192).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +146 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A throwing game script is implied by the Steelers being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's game.

Right now, the 9th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Steelers.

The Ravens defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (39.9 per game) this year.

Russell Wilson has been among the leading TD passers in the league this year, averaging a terrific 1.62 per game while grading out in the 76th percentile.

The Baltimore Ravens defense has conceded the 7th-most touchdowns through the air in football: 1.64 per game this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 10th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 7th-least pass-focused offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 52.5% red zone pass rate.

The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

The projections expect Russell Wilson to attempt 32.3 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 10th-fewest among all quarterbacks.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-lowest clip in the NFL versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year (68.5% Adjusted Completion%).

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