Russell Wilson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Russell Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

TD Passes

Chicago Bears vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 8:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Russell Wilson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+115/-145).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Broncos rank as the 7th-most pass-heavy team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 65.0% red zone pass rate.
Russell Wilson's passing precision has improved this season, with his Completion% rising from 59.3% to 64.7%.
Since the start of last season, the shaky Bears defense has conceded a colossal 73.0% Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 5th-largest rate in football.
The Chicago Bears linebackers project as the 2nd-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in defending receivers.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
The projections expect the Denver Broncos as the 7th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Broncos to run the 3rd-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 59.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The model projects Russell Wilson to attempt 30.6 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 4th-fewest of all quarterbacks.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.3 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: fewest in the NFL.

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