Russell Wilson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Russell Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

TD Passes

Miami Dolphins vs Denver Broncos · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 8:01 PM EST

Analysis

Russell Wilson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+145/-175).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -175.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Broncos are a 6-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
The Broncos rank as the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) since the start of last season with a 63.7% red zone pass rate.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.3 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in football.
Russell Wilson's throwing precision has been refined this season, with his Completion% increasing from 59.3% to 67.2%.
The Miami Dolphins defense has conceded the 10th-most touchdowns through the air in the league: 1.53 per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to call the 5th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins safeties rank as the 4th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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