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Russell Wilson

Russell Wilson TD Passes
Player Prop Week 12

Denver Broncos vs Cleveland Browns

Russell Wilson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+155/-185).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +130 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -185.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Broncos grades out as the 9th-best in football this year.

Russell Wilson's throwing accuracy has improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 59.3% to 68.9%.

With an impressive ratio of 1.90 per game (92nd percentile), Russell Wilson has been as one of the leading touchdown throwers in the league this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Broncos feature a new play-caller this season in head coach Sean Payton, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Broncos to pass on 53.2% of their chances: the 6th-lowest clip among all teams this week.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have only 126.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.

The Denver Broncos have called the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 53.2 plays per game.

In this game, Russell Wilson is forecasted by the projections to wind up with the 5th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 30.2.

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