Russell Wilson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Russell Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

TD Passes

Denver Broncos vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Russell Wilson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+160/-200).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Russell Wilson's 67.8% Adjusted Completion% this season indicates a noteworthy growth in his throwing precision over last season's 59.3% rate.
With a terrific ratio of 2.00 per game (95th percentile), Russell Wilson places as one of the top touchdown throwers in the league this year.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 8th-highest clip in football versus the Vikings defense this year (73.4% Adjusted Completion%).

Favors Under

The projections expect the Denver Broncos offensive strategy to skew 2.0% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
The model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 4th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Broncos to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The 4th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Broncos this year (a lowly 53.7 per game on average).
In this contest, Russell Wilson is expected by the projection model to wind up with the 4th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 31.0.

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