Russell Wilson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Russell Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

TD Passes

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 14, 2023 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Russell Wilson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+155/-205).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Broncos are a huge 7.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
Russell Wilson's passing precision has improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 59.3% to 65.6%.
With a terrific ratio of 2.00 per game (95th percentile), Russell Wilson places as one of the leading touchdown throwers in football this year.
This year, the shaky Bills defense has been gouged for a staggering 77.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 2nd-highest rate in football.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Denver Broncos offensive scheme to skew 1.5% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (adjusted for context) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Broncos to pass on 57.3% of their downs: the lowest clip among all teams this week.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are predicted by our trusted projection set to call only 60.8 plays on offense in this contest: the fewest among all teams this week.
The lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Denver Broncos this year (only 52.2 per game on average).
In this week's game, Russell Wilson is anticipated by the projections to average the fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 31.7.

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