Russell Wilson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Russell Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

TD Passes

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Russell Wilson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+125/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-highest level in football against the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season (73.3%).
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers project as the 2nd-worst group of LBs in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Sean Payton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-least plays run among all games this week at 125.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Russell Wilson to attempt 31.7 passes in this contest, on average: the 6th-least of all QBs.

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