Russell Wilson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Russell Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

TD Passes

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 17, 2022 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Russell Wilson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+142/-184).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -188 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -184.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Broncos are a 4-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest rate in football vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year (74.3%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Russell Wilson to attempt 37.2 passes in this contest, on average: the least of all QBs.
Russell Wilson's passing accuracy has tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.3% to 57.7%.
Russell Wilson has been among the weakest touchdown throwers in the league this year, averaging a terrible 0.80 per game while grading out in the 21st percentile.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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