Russell Wilson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Russell Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

TD Passes

Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 7, 2022 12:20 AM UTC

Analysis

Russell Wilson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+120/-155).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +125 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 60.2% red zone pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Denver Broncos O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has given up the 9th-most touchdowns through the air in the league: 1.75 per game this year.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
Russell Wilson's passing precision has tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 65.3% to 59.0%.
Russell Wilson has been among the worst TD throwers in the league this year, averaging a terrible 1.00 per game while checking in at the 24th percentile.

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