Russell Wilson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

TD Passes

Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:45 PM UTC

Analysis

Russell Wilson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+117/-157).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -144 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -157.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.1% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 59.9% red zone pass rate.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 8th-highest clip in the NFL versus the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season (71.5%).
The Denver Broncos offensive line has allowed their QB 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Denver Broncos have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 57.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 6th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 61.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Russell Wilson to attempt 30.8 passes in this game, on average: the least of all QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the league.
Russell Wilson's throwing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.2% to 57.9%.