Russell Wilson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

TD Passes

Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 11:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Russell Wilson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-160/+130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Russell Wilson's passing accuracy has gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 65.2% to 68.3%.
Russell Wilson has been among the top TD passers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 1.73 per game while ranking in the 75th percentile.
The Houston Texans safeties profile as the worst group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Denver Broncos O-line has afforded their QB 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Broncos are an enormous 10-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 7th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.43 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Russell Wilson to attempt 33.5 passes in this game, on average: the 8th-least of all QBs.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.