Russell Wilson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Russell Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

TD Passes

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Russell Wilson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+130/-160).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 5th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 61.8% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Denver Broncos offensive line has allowed their quarterback 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.1 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
Russell Wilson's throwing accuracy has tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.3% to 59.1%.
Russell Wilson has been among the weakest TD throwers in the league this year, averaging a miserable 0.93 per game while ranking in the 20th percentile.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 6th-lowest rate in the NFL versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year (67.5%).

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