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Russell Wilson

Russell Wilson TD Passes
Player Prop Week 18

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Russell Wilson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+130/-160).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 5th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 61.8% red zone pass rate.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • The Denver Broncos offensive line has allowed their quarterback 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Broncos are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 33.1 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
  • Russell Wilson's throwing accuracy has tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.3% to 59.1%.
  • Russell Wilson has been among the weakest TD throwers in the league this year, averaging a miserable 0.93 per game while ranking in the 20th percentile.
  • Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 6th-lowest rate in the NFL versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year (67.5%).

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