Russell Wilson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

TD Passes

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 2, 2023 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Russell Wilson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+204/-278).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -270 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -278.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

Russell Wilson's passing accuracy has worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 65.3% to 58.3%.
Russell Wilson has been among the bottom TD throwers in football this year, averaging a terrible 0.92 per game while checking in at the 18th percentile.
The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks profile as the 8th-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in the league since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.