Russell Wilson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Russell Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

TD Passes

Los Angeles Rams vs Denver Broncos · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 26, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Russell Wilson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+170/-230).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -210 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -230.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.9% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 8th-highest clip in the NFL vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year (72.4%).
The Los Angeles Rams safeties profile as the 6th-worst unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Denver Broncos offensive line has afforded their QB 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 4th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 59.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Russell Wilson to attempt 34.9 passes in this contest, on average: the 3rd-least of all QBs.
Russell Wilson's throwing precision has diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 65.3% to 59.3%.

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