Russell Wilson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

TD Passes

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Russell Wilson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-278/+202).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -256 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -278.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Broncos are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 5th-most in the league.

Favors Under

Russell Wilson's passing accuracy has declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.3% to 58.7%.
Russell Wilson has been among the worst TD throwers in the league this year, averaging a terrible 0.73 per game while ranking in the 17th percentile.
The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks project as the 6th-best collection of CBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.