Russell Wilson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Russell Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

TD Passes

Baltimore Ravens vs Denver Broncos · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM EST

Analysis

Russell Wilson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+198/-256).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +211 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +198.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Broncos are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The Denver Broncos have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.1 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in the league.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 2nd-highest level in football vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year (74.5%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to call the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Russell Wilson's throwing precision has tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 65.3% to 57.2%.
Russell Wilson has been among the bottom TD passers in the NFL this year, averaging a paltry 0.80 per game while checking in at the 19th percentile.
The Baltimore Ravens cornerbacks grade out as the 10th-best CB corps in football this year in pass coverage.
The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

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