Russell Wilson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 12

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

TD Passes

Carolina Panthers vs Denver Broncos · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Russell Wilson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+181/-231).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -225 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -231.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.04 seconds per snap.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 8th-highest clip in the NFL vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year (73.8%).
The Carolina Panthers safeties rank as the 5th-worst group of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.
The Denver Broncos O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Russell Wilson's throwing accuracy has tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 65.3% to 57.4%.
Russell Wilson has been among the bottom TD throwers in the league this year, averaging a miserable 0.78 per game while checking in at the 22nd percentile.
The Carolina Panthers defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the best in football since the start of last season.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.