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Russell Wilson

Russell Wilson TD Passes
Player Prop Week 11

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders

Russell Wilson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+132/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -174 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -170.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.7% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the 6th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 27.08 seconds per snap.

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest level in the NFL versus the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year (76.6%).

The Las Vegas Raiders defense has allowed the 2nd-most passing touchdowns in football: 1.89 per game this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Russell Wilson's throwing precision has declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.3% to 55.8%.

Russell Wilson has been among the weakest TD throwers in the NFL this year, averaging a miserable 0.88 per game while checking in at the 23rd percentile.

The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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