Russell Wilson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

TD Passes

Tennessee Titans vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Russell Wilson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+151/-210).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -203 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -210.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 58.9% red zone pass rate.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.2 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in football.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-highest clip in the NFL vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year (75.8%).
The Tennessee Titans defense has allowed the 4th-most TDs through the air in football: 1.88 per game this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Russell Wilson's passing precision has declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.3% to 56.9%.
The Tennessee Titans safeties profile as the 8th-best unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.