Russell Wilson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Russell Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

TD Passes

Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 10:56 PM EST

Analysis

Russell Wilson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-200/+160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -200.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.5% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.
Russell Wilson has been among the best touchdown passers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 1.79 per game while checking in at the 76th percentile.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest clip in the NFL vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season (74.6%).

Favors Under

The Broncos are a 6.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 2nd-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 6th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 60.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Russell Wilson to attempt 33.5 passes in this contest, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.

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