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Russell Wilson

Russell Wilson Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 17

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Russell Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 44.8% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the model to see 134.2 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.

The 10th-most plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a massive 59.1 per game on average).

The model projects Russell Wilson to be a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack in this game (13.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (8.1% in games he has played).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may slide.

Russell Wilson has run for many fewer adjusted yards per game (8.0) this season than he did last season (22.0).

Russell Wilson's rushing efficiency has diminished this year, notching just 3.25 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 5.11 rate last year.

This year, the stout Kansas City Chiefs run defense has surrendered a paltry 91.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 3rd-best in the NFL.

The Kansas City Chiefs safeties profile as the 4th-best group of safeties in the league this year in regard to run defense.

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