Russell Wilson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Russell Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Denver Broncos vs Washington Commanders · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 8:17 PM UTC

Analysis

Russell Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-165/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Sean Payton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Broncos are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 9th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 45.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense to be the 2nd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 30.43 seconds per play.
Russell Wilson has been a much smaller piece of his offense's rushing attack this season (4.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (12.9%).
Opposing teams have rushed for the 8th-least yards in the league (just 110 per game) vs. the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season.
The Washington Commanders defensive ends grade out as the best unit in the league since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

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