Russell Wilson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Russell Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Denver Broncos vs Cleveland Browns · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Russell Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-136/+104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Broncos feature a new play-caller this season in head coach Sean Payton, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Denver Broncos to run on 46.8% of their downs: the 6th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
Russell Wilson isn't afraid to run the ball, accounting for 15.3% of his team's carries this year, placing him in the 81st percentile when it comes to QBs.
Russell Wilson's 22.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year conveys a substantial boost in his running ability over last year's 17.0 mark.

Favors Under

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have only 126.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Denver Broncos have called the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 53.2 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The opposing side have run for the 6th-fewest adjusted yards in football (just 95.0 per game) vs. the Browns defense this year.
When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Cleveland's collection of DTs has been one of the most skilled this year, profiling as the 9th-best in the league.

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