Russell Wilson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Russell Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 14, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Russell Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-130/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Denver Broncos offensive scheme to skew 1.5% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (adjusted for context) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
Russell Wilson isn't afraid to take off running, taking on 15.6% of his team's run game usage this year, placing him in the 82nd percentile among quarterbacks.
Russell Wilson has rushed for many more yards per game (23.0) this season than he did last season (17.0).
Russell Wilson's 6.18 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year reflects a noteable gain in his rushing ability over last year's 5.35 rate.
This year, the formidable Bills run defense has conceded a measly 4.94 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing teams: the 30th-smallest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a huge 7.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Denver Broncos to run on 42.7% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are predicted by our trusted projection set to call only 60.8 plays on offense in this contest: the fewest among all teams this week.
The lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Denver Broncos this year (only 52.2 per game on average).
The model projects Russell Wilson to accrue 3.4 carries this week, on average: the fewest among all QBs.

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