Russell Wilson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Russell Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 17, 2022 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Russell Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Russell Wilson to be much more involved in his team's run game this week (10.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (0.9% in games he has played).
The Denver Broncos offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in run blocking.
Russell Wilson's ground effectiveness has improved this season, totaling 6.23 yards-per-carry vs a mere 4.49 rate last season.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has produced the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, giving up 6.28 yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Broncos are a 4-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 2nd-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 38.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Russell Wilson to garner 2.7 carries in this game, on average: the least of all QBs.
The Los Angeles Chargers defensive tackles rank as the 4th-best group of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

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