Russell Wilson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Russell Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 9:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Russell Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Russell Wilson to be a more important option in his team's running game this week (12.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (3.9% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive ends rank as the 3rd-worst unit in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Broncos are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 8th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 37.8% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Russell Wilson has been among the weakest QBs in football at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging just 1.11 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 23rd percentile.
Opposing offenses have run for the 6th-least yards in the league (just 107 per game) versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.

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