Russell Wilson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Russell Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Denver Broncos · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Russell Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.0 (-105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 8.0 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.1 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Russell Wilson to be a more integral piece of his team's run game this week (10.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (4.3% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Broncos are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 10th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 37.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to call the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Russell Wilson to notch 2.5 carries in this week's contest, on average: the 10th-least of all QBs.

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