Russell Wilson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Russell Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Russell Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-105/-135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Russell Wilson to be much more involved in his offense's run game this week (11.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (3.1% in games he has played).
Russell Wilson's running effectiveness has gotten a boost this season, accumulating 5.63 yards-per-carry vs a mere 4.49 figure last season.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Russell Wilson has been among the worst QBs in the league at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a measly 0.84 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 23rd percentile.
Opposing teams have run for the least yards in the NFL (just 84 per game) against the Tennessee Titans defense this year.
The Tennessee Titans defensive ends rank as the 2nd-best DE corps in the NFL this year with their run defense.

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