Russell Wilson Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

Passing Yards

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Russell Wilson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 232.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 232.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 232.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Denver Broncos offensive line has allowed their quarterback 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Denver Broncos have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.1 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
Russell Wilson's throwing accuracy has tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.3% to 59.1%.
Russell Wilson has been among the least effective quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a mere 6.61 yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 19th percentile.
Opposing offenses have thrown for the least yards in the NFL (just 200.0 per game) versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year.