Russell Wilson Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Russell Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

Passing Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Denver Broncos · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM EST

Analysis

Russell Wilson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 219.5 (-103/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 220.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 219.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Broncos are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The Denver Broncos have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.1 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in the league.
Opposing QBs have thrown for the 3rd-most yards in the league (282.0 per game) versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to call the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Russell Wilson's throwing precision has tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 65.3% to 57.2%.
Russell Wilson has been among the worst per-play passers in the league this year, averaging a measly 6.48 yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 15th percentile.
The Baltimore Ravens cornerbacks grade out as the 10th-best CB corps in football this year in pass coverage.
The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

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